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The future is not somewhere we are going. It is something we are creating. Every day we do things that make some futures more probable and others less likely.^[2]

Global warming already disrupts millions of lives daily in the forms of destructive weather patterns and loss of habitat.^[3] What is already happening is only the tip of the melting iceberg, for it is our children and grandchildren who may suffer most from the effects of global warming. ^[4] Hundreds of millions of people may be exposed to famine, water shortages, extreme weather conditions and a 20 - 30% loss of animal and plant species if we don't reduce the rate of global warming and reduce GHG emissions.^[5] On the other hand, warmer winters means longer growing seasons in temperate and subarctic climes, sometimes allowing an additional crop to be planted and harvested each year, or simply making the existing crops more productive.^[6][7] This article outlines some ways that you can act to help prevent the Earth from warming further. While humankind has the ability to destroy the planet, we can also help protect and sustain it.

Reducing your carbon and greenhouse gas emissions will not only make your personal living space more sustainable but it will save you money in both the short and long term. Global warming is occurring more rapidly than it was originally expected to -- only forty years ago, ^[8] the big worry was global cooling. Even if you remain a cynic, however, and believe that the majority of scientists are wrong, you'll benefit from reduced pollution, a more healthful lifestyle and increased savings from enacting these simple activities that will not reduce the quality of your life.

When the bees entered the adult foraging stage, researchers found that the bees raised under the lowest controlled temperature were poor dancers, will lesser capabilities to communicate food locations to other foragers. Additionally, they suffered from a learning disability. After two weeks of foraging, the majority of the bees abandoned the hive, either going to other hives in the area, or disappearing without researcher knowledge of their whereabouts.

Based on those facts, an initial hypothesis that increased temperatures from global warming would help produce better dancing and learning honey bees sounds credible. However, before taking that hypothetical leap, two additional facts on honey bee behavior need to be considered.

First, the researchers state that, "honey bees appear to be the only group that have achieved a high degree of homeothermy in their nests, keeping the brood combs at temperatures which, although never constant, vary within a relatively narrow window of 3^oC."

Second, the researchers state that, "First, the 40% investment in maintaining the brood temperature is a significant portion of the energy budget and attests to the importance of this activity."

Given those sets of facts, the researchers conclude, "We propose that when outside temperatures are high, fewer heater bees will be needed and a larger number of successful foragers will be produced by the higher temperature in the brood."

Do those facts and conclusions strengthen the hypothesis that global warming will help honey bees dance?

Yes and no. At face value, the experiment, and conclusions drawn from them, supports the hypothesis that global warming helps honey bees dance. Warmer weather means that more worker bees can devote their time to foraging rather than heating the hive. Warmer temperatures also suggest a greater probability of warmer hives, although that is not completely clear, given the fact that hive temperatures can swing in a +/- 3^oC range when dealing with outside temperatures.

The researchers do not address how global warming or rising temperatures might affect the honey bee food supply. Honey bees have complex dietary needs. If the temperature changes caused by global warming affect the landscape of a honey bee's territory, those changes may be harmful to honey bee health. In the end, warmer temperatures may help improve honeybee dancing, but communication inherent in those dances may well signal a flight of the honey bees to a more accommodating environment.

Environmental changes in and around the Arctic region have been among the most pronounced changes related to climate change documented to date. The National Snow and Ice Data Center for example, continues to report on declining Arctic Sea ice trends, which are record setting in some cases.

Russia is no exception. One recent report in Polar Research shows an accelerated warming trend over Western Siberia over the years from 1966-1995. The trends continue today.

Because sixty per cent of Russian land is categorized as permafrost, a soil condition defined by temperature, a warming climate could potentially change the Russian landscape. Here are some sources examining those issues.

One series of research reports suggests that Russian warming trends will contribute to overall warming trends. Scientists have been measuring methane emissions from Peat Bogs in West Siberia, and have predicted increased emissions as areas of permafrost begin to melt.

Another series of questions deal with how changes in the permafrost landscape will influence Russia's sustainable development programs.

The map of Permafrost in Siberia shows the largest portion of land in the continuous permafrost category. (note: to retrieve a larger map, go to Arctic Environmental Atlas and add the following choices to the appropriate places on the map builder: 1. "Zoom to"="Siberia"; 2. "Theme"="Permafrost" plus check off all relevant boxes underneath the "Theme" category. Clicking on the "advanced mode" link at the bottom of the left hand column brings up more choices.; 3. Click the "refresh Map" button.; 4. Click the "larger map" link.)

Areas subject to changing permafrost conditions are of special concern because of the damage to buildings and infrastructure brought on by the changes in the soil composition beneath them. (see generally Permafrost and Changing Climate: The Russian Perspective)

The Map of Western Glaciers shows the general locations for eight thousand plus documented glaciers in the area.

Examining glacial advance and retreat patterns in any specific area on the map generally shows they are determined partly by local precipitation and temperature patterns.

The Glaciers of Northern California, for example, are among the few to remain in equilibrium over the past decade. Scientists attribute the stability to increased precipitation in the region.

Glacier retreat dominates the predictions for other areas, especially the larger glacial areas along the northern border. Consider the following two areas.

Today, many of the more visible examples of changing climate patterns are found in the northern polar regions.

In its 2007 Fourth Assessment, The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that "The Arctic is very likely to warm during this century in most areas, and the annual mean warming is very likely to exceed the global mean warming." Scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center have been providing strong correlative evidence supporting the warming Arctic expectations of the IPCC. An October 2007 report on Arctic Sea Ice, for example, shows sea ice declines ranging between thirty-nine and fifty per cent in that past couple of decades, depending on which measurement tools are used.

As a large land mass surrounded by the world's oceans, Antarctic geography often is described as the polar opposite of Arctic geography. Because approximately ninety per cent of the world's ice is found on and around Antarctica, global concern about climate change and Antarctica deal with potential sea level rise associated with glacial melt.

The IPCC reports some weaknesses in the GCMs abilities to adequately forecast long term Antarctic climate trends. "A serious problem is the lack of observations against which to assess models, and for developing process knowledge, particularly over Antarctica."

Currently scientists have only an adequate understanding of the regional factors historically influencing Antarctic climate conditions. Most regional Antarctic climate studies are organized with both an ocean and an atmospheric element.

The Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the strong ocean current that encircles the continent, moving in a clockwise direction, serves as the primary ocean explanation influencing Antarctic weather patterns.

The answer depends on the specific area in question, and this brief review addresses the general types of global warming effects on human, plant and wildlife populations.

One of the most obvious visible effects of global warming will be changes to plant and wildlife habitat. In any given area, many of the native plant and wildlife species have evolved to live in that specific habitat because it contain their basic survival needs such as food, water and shelter. A changing climate will cause changes to the traditional wildlife and plant habitat.

In many instances, wildlife are adaptable and able to migrate to cope with changing temperatures. Consequently, global warming will mean that people will begin seeing more of some species and less of others in their areas.

The Baltimore Oriole, for example, is the state bird of Maryland, and it is adapted to breeding in a temperate climate. A changing climate, with warmer temperatures in Maryland, suggests that the Oriole might stop migrating to Maryland, instead choosing to nest further to the north in New Jersey or Pennsylvania.

Considerable research about the global warming effects on plants and wildlife has already been undertaken. The Climate Change Atlas, for example, examines global warming effects on eastern tree and bird species.

Wildlife with below average adaptive capabilities are at considerable risk if their current habitat changes. The International Union for Nature Conservation (IUNC) recently released a report suggesting that around the world, 35% of bird species, 52% of amphibian species and 71% of warm-water reef-building coral species are at risk because of a changing climate.

Change in physical landscapes also pose problems for populations around the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) follows recent climate change and health reports saying, "Climate variability and change cause death and disease through natural disasters, such as heat waves, floods and droughts. In addition, many important diseases are highly sensitive to changing temperatures and precipitation.".

In the United States, natural disaster issues associated with climate change such as the formation of more, or more intense, hurricanes in the Eastern United States, and the melting of glaciers in the Western United States, have received considerable attention. The links in the box on the right point to articles with additional information on those topics.

Over the course of the four decades General Circulation Models have been criticized and refined based on specific types of feedback. One of the more prominent scientific needs in any statistically based model is the need for reliable data because in many instances, data gathering techniques affect the reliability of the model. For example, if global temperatures over time around the world were recorded using different measuring techniques, that fact would decrease the reliability of any forecast.

Another variation on the data reliability theme deals with the issue of balance. The data may be gathered correctly, but could still suffer from a balance problem such as complete information for the Atlantic Ocean or atmosphere but incomplete information for Pacific Ocean or atmosphere. Uneven sampling, as it is also know, like most pollsters understand, tends to create biases in model prediction.

Scientists will tell you they consistently look to improve their data gathering techniques relying primarily on the World Meteorological Organization to set the standard for insuring the consistency of data measurement and compilation around the world.

Scientists also seek other ways to improve their research. There are more than a few ways to approach the issue of the reliability of long term climate predictions, here's one example.

A 2000 review entitled, An Overview of the Results of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project, compare the results of thirty one different models from climate science programs around the world. While the bulk of the report provides analysis of the GCMs, they conclude,

"On the whole, the models provide a credible simulation for the large-scale distribution of the primary climate variables characterizing the atmospheric pressure, temperature, wind, hydrologic cycle and radiation balance, although a number of common systematic model errors are apparent".

Back in 2000, the robustness of the GCMs was still being challenged. Improved super-computer technology along with increased funding for research and ocean data collection helped climate scientists refined their Ocean Coupling Models. By 2004, The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison was able to publish a comparative review of eleven of the models called, An Appraisal of Coupled Climate Model Simulations. It is a lengthy PDF file.

One of the big picture statistical problems the analysts were looking at was whether or not these latest coupled models were able to provide more reliable one hundred year forecasts. They noted that one of the problems with earlier versions was their lack of reliable long term forecasts. They say,

"Coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM simulations drifted relatively quickly and steadily unless constrained by nonphysical flux adjustments (and in some cases did so even with flux adjustments). In recent years the situation has improved dramatically. This improvement was documented in the most recent IPCC assessment report and is confirmed by the results given above. Although most of the CMIP2+ models employ flux adjustments, both the flux adjusted and the non-flux adjusted models exhibit acceptably small "climate drift" for century-scale simulations."

General Circulation Models (GCMs)

The big picture understanding of climate change science starts with the building block of that science, The General Circulation Model (GMC). It is a statistical model to explain, describe and predict global weather patterns under various conditions, including increased greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. When building a General Circulation Model (GCM) climate scientists assume climate to be the product of a variety of inter-related factors.

Starting in the 1960s scientists began producing a general 'ABC' model of climate and weather. They gathered time series data on atmospheric, biosphere and cryospheric conditions around the world as a way of building the first climate models.

This basic 'ABC' General Circulation Model for weather forecasting runs along the following lines:

Global Climate = (A) Atmosphere + (B) Biosphere + (C) Cryosphere + (G) Geosphere + (O) Oceans).

Global weather patterns are a function of atmospheric, biosphere, cryospheric, geospheric and oceanic factors. The way this example model is written includes geospheric and oceanic factors (G + O), that were added to GCMs after the initial atmospheric weather based models were up and running. The simplicity of the model is found in its common sense design. For example, anyone who would want to know the cause of the past two summers of hurricane activity in the south eastern United States would want an explanation that covered all of those factors.

Climate modeling begins with these basic assumptions. However, the meat and potatoes of the work involves countless hours of theory, concept building and data gathering in order to flesh out the general factors addressed in the equation. In trying to explain the degree of sophistication of the newer models, consider how the Community Climate System Model of the National Atmospheric Research Center explains its model. "To recreate a single day of the world's climate, the model must perform 700 billion calculations."

Over the past four decades General Circulation models have gone through two updates. The first GCMs mentioned above closely resembled their weather cousins, using data similar to what weather forecasts were using around the world. Time and budgetary constraints slowed progress in GCM research. For example the early GCMs lacked any ocean concepts and data. As weather data became more reliable and available, especially from satellites, scientists were able to refine their initial models. These refinements spurred the second wave of climate research, moving the GCMs to what is known as coupled models design. These models furthered the science of global weather forecasting by coupling models about ocean activity such as currents and water temperature with models about atmospheric, biosphere, cryospheric and geospheric activity.

Models from the Canadian Climate Centre illustrate the general findings of the first round of ocean coupling models around the year 2000. First they show patterns of increased surface air temperatures at the Polar Regions. Two separate versions of the general model predictions diverged with respect to temperature increases at the lower latitudes. The first version of their model predicted asymmetrical north/south warming patterns with the Asian continent and Saharan Africa experiencing, on average, higher temperatures. The second version of their model predicts more of a symmetrical north/south warming pattern.

By April of 2005, the Canadian Climate Center was demonstrating its third version of a Coupled Global Climate Model, which went back and improved the design and data for atmospheric variables. Results from their second version are online in very well done animated maps showing changes in surface air temperature, precipitation and soil moisture through the year 2099. One generalized result they highlight is "that surface air temperature changes accelerate with time and that there is more warming over land and polar regions than over the oceans."

Global warming is based on a very simple hypothesis. Anthropogenic (human caused) emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) contribute a layer of gasses around earth's atmoshpere. The accumulation of GHGs then blocks some of earth's emanating heat from escaping to space, causing a general heating or global warming pattern.

• carbon dioxide (CO₂)
• methane (CH₄)
• nitrous oxide (N₂O)
• hydroflurocarbons (HFCs)
• perflourocarbons (PFCs)
• sulphur hexaflouride (SF6)

Considerations about the degree to which GHGs influence climate change deal with two sets of issues.

Aggregate emissions trends estimate the volume of each of the six GHGs released into the atmosphere per year.

Of equal importance is the relative power of the various GHGs to act as atmospheric road blocks that keep heat in the atmosphere.

Scientists call this road blocking ability the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of a gas. The standard measurement unit is 1 for Carbon, and it turns out Carbon is the least effective of the GHGs in trapping earth's heat.

For comparative purposes, over a twenty year time span, Methane's GWP=56, Nitrorus Oxide's GWP=310 and the GWP of the engineered chemicals varies from 460-16,000 (see UNFCCC Global Warming Potential.

Each GHG also has a life span, or time it remains stable in the atmosphere. Whereas the numbers for carbon look somewhat benign in terms of its GWP, they start to look a bit more daunting when considered in terms of life span.

Scientists estimate that CO₂ remains stable in the atmosphere for anywhere from 50-200 years. Methane, on the other hand, remains stable only about 12 years. Nitrous Oxide's life span reaches the 120 year mark.

Finally the engineered chemicals may remain stable for anywhere from 2 to 50,000 years for Perfluoromethane.